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- Health officials anticipate this winter’s flu season to be moderate compared to last year’s severe season.
- Nonetheless, experts recommend that everyone who is eligible get vaccinated against influenza this fall.
- Experts say flu shots lower the risk of being hospitalized or dying from the illness.
While many forecasts predict a somewhat moderate influenza season this coming winter, health officials continue to recommend that everyone who is eligible get vaccinated against the flu.
They say this applies in particular to people who are more vulnerable to developing more serious illnesses from the flu virus, including older adults, children, and people with compromised immune systems.
Federal agencies’ flu vaccine recommendations are consistent with last year’s guidelines and differ from the recently changed recommendations concerning COVID-19 vaccinations.
Experts note that the flu can cause serious complications, even among healthy people, so the illness should not be taken lightly.
“While most cases are mild, some are more severe leading to hospitalizations and tens of thousands of those affected die yearly from the flu,” said David Cutler, MD, a family medicine physician at Providence Saint John’s Health Center in Santa Monica, CA.
“Influenza can be severe or even deadly, and the vaccine prevents severe disease, albeit not all infections,” added Monica Gandhi, MD, a professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco. “Pediatric hospitalizations for influenza last year were particularly high, so we encourage everyone to get the flu vaccine this year.”
Here’s what you need to know about this year’s flu season.
Outlook for the upcoming flu season
Experts aren’t certain yet how strong the 2025–2026 flu season might be.
Last year, the United States experienced what some experts described as the most severe flu season in more than a decade.
Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that between 47 million and 82 million influenza illnesses occurred in the United States during the 2024–2025 flu season.
There were an estimated 610,000 to 1.3 million hospitalizations and between 27,000 and 130,000 deaths associated with the flu.
In addition, Australia has been recording a strong flu season. In July, Australian officials said this year’s flu season was shaping up to be their country’s second-worst in a decade.
Flu cases in the Southern Hemisphere, where July and August are considered winter months, often give a glimpse into what the flu season will be like in the Northern Hemisphere during the fall and winter.
In the United States, flu season usually begins in October and lasts through March, with the peak period being between December and February.
The CDC released a report in August stating that the upcoming fall and winter respiratory virus season will likely have a similar number of hospitalizations as last year.
However, those estimates include projected cases of COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza.
William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, TN, said this year’s flu season might be more moderate compared to last year.
“Last season was quite severe and it is unusual to experience two severe seasons in a row, especially as no new flu strains have appeared on the global scene. Thus, likely we’ll have an average, moderately severe season,” he told Healthline.
Cutler agreed that flu season severity is difficult to predict.
“It is impossible to predict with certainty the nature of any upcoming flu season. The number of cases, the timing of the peak, and the exact nature of variants are always variable,” he told Healthline.
Schaffner recommended getting vaccinated against the flu, no matter what the forecasts are.
“Patients should not make their decisions about receiving [the] flu vaccine [based] on predictions. Make it routine every year,” he said.
Who should get a flu shot?
CDC officials recommend that nearly everyone 6 months and older should receive a flu vaccination this fall.
The only exceptions are infants under 6 months of age and people with serious, life-threatening allergies to ingredients in the flu vaccine.
CDC officials say several groups of people are most at risk for complications from the flu and should prioritize getting vaccinated. The list includes:
- people ages 65 years and older
- children younger than 2 years of age
- people with chronic conditions such as asthma and blood disorders
- people with a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or higher
- people with weakened immune systems
There should be a sufficient supply of vaccines in the United States this season. Manufacturers have informed the CDC that as many as 154 million doses of the vaccine will be available in the United States during the 2025-2026 season.
Most insurers cover the cost of a flu vaccine. For people who pay out of pocket, the cost can be from $20 to $100.
Flu shots are generally available at pharmacies, doctors’ offices, and medical facilities, among other places.
There is an option for people who don’t like needles or can’t get to a place where vaccinations are given.
In September 2024, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the use of the FluMist nasal spray for people 2 to 49 years of age. The spray can be self-administered by an individual or given by a caregiver.
The flu vaccine recommendations are different than the CDC’s guidelines for COVID-19 shots. In May, federal officials revised their COVID-19 guidance, saying they were no longer recommending the COVID-19 vaccine to healthy adults under 65, pregnant people, and healthy children.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) also voted in June to advise against using vaccines with thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative that is used in less than 5% of vaccines. However, thimerosal was removed from all childhood vaccines in the United States in 2001.
In June, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. fired all 17 panel members of the ACIP and has since been appointing hand-picked replacements.
When should you get a flu shot?
CDC officials say the best time to get a flu shot is in early fall, preferably before the end of October.
Cutler says there are a number of variables that could influence when you should get a flu shot. Among them is when flu season peaks, when a person is traveling, if a person has another illness, and what other vaccinations they intend to get.
“All things considered, including February being the most common month for flu outbreaks, peak activity occurring as early as October, immunity waning about 10% per month, especially in the elderly, and flu cases hitting any time of year, late October is probably the ideal time to receive the flu vaccine,” he said.
Of course, it’s never too late to get a flu shot, even if you miss the late-October target date.
This year’s vaccine has been formulated to protect against three main groups of circulating influenza viruses.
The CDC states that it takes about two weeks after a vaccination for antibodies to develop in the body that protect a person against the flu.
CDC officials note that a flu shot doesn’t guarantee a person won’t get the flu if exposed to the influenza virus. Instead, the vaccine lowers a person’s risk of hospitalization or death from the illness from 40% to 60%.
They add that side effects from flu shots are generally mild and can range from soreness at the spot of injection to headache to fatigue to fever.
Benefits of the flu vaccine
Influenza, also known as the flu, is a contagious viral infection that attacks a person’s respiratory system.
Influenza viruses that are contagious to people are divided into three main groups: A, B, and C. Type A influenza is considered to be the most serious risk.
Common symptoms of the flu include:
In addition to vaccinations, experts say there are ways to lower your risk of contracting and spreading the flu. They include:
- regular hand washing
- avoiding large crowds during peak flu season
- covering your mouth and nose when you cough and sneeze
Experts say influenza has the potential to be a serious illness for anyone who contracts it.
“There are two major reasons why it is important to get a flu vaccine,” said Cutler. “Reason number one is that the vaccine protects you. And perhaps more importantly, the vaccine protects people you might expose to flu around you who may be particularly vulnerable.”
“Despite the vaccines being only about 50% effective even in the best years when cases match closely the anticipated variants of the virus, the benefits of these vaccines vastly outweigh any risks,” he added.
Despite these warnings, a recent Washington Post poll reports that 16% of parents are either skipping or delaying vaccinations for their children. Those parents noted safety concerns and the risks of side effects as major reasons.
During the 2024-2025 season, 266 children died from influenza, the highest number recorded in a non-pandemic year since the agency began reporting this figure in 2004. About 90% of those deaths were in children who were not fully vaccinated.
Gandhi said she is worried about this trend.
“I am very concerned about the vaccine hesitancy in this country given that we know vaccines are safe and effective,” she told Healthline. “Moreover, a vaccine shows you a part of the virus to develop immunity safely without having to suffer through the illness.”
Schaffner noted that choosing not to vaccinate yourself or your children is an unwise decision.
“While it is true that flu has its most devastating effects on older persons and those with chronic medical conditions, it can strike even the young and healthy, thus the broad recommendation that everyone 6 months of age and older should get flu vaccine each year,” he said.
